Wednesday, October 4, 2006

Yes, It’s Ban

Congratulations to South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon who ran the perfect campaign on his way to the UN Secretary’s job. Barring any unforeseen problems, Ban’s overwhelming 14 vote “Encourage”—with all Big Five Security Council members voting to endorsing his candidacy—will be the next Secretary General, the Man Who Will Lead The World. When the General Assembly votes on his nomination in December, they will endorse the Security Council’s decision.

Ban’s campaign focused on fundamentals—lots of personal diplomacy and contact with Security Council members. He also had a “goodie bag” of South Korean development assistance to distribute, but the combination of campaign smarts, a diplomat who as it seems offended no one, and the weight of the South Korean diplomatic establishment served to get him out in front and to his credit, he never stumbled.

The Also Rans

Special credit goes to the “Iron Woman of the Balts,” Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga for her stunning rise in the polls when she decided to jump into the race just three weeks from the final straw poll. The Russians would never let her become SG, but the fact that she placed so highly is a tribute to her integrity…NSG.org asks this tantalizing question: “Where will she go after her term as president ends?” Good things await for her.

Shashi Tharoor who was the Indian candidate, made a very commendable showing. However, as it was pointed out repeatedly, his greatest strength (being Indian) was also a major disadvantage and China, NSG.org believes, would never have signed off on their big neighbor being granted the top slot at the UN.

Surakiart Sathirathai, the Thai candidate who went from being the ASEAN candidate to Man Without a Country when the government was couped has retired to lick his wounds. His campaign was a rocket ride to the top—then a giant plunge.

Zied Ra’ad Zeid Al-Hussein—A big surprise here. NSG.org believed that he would make a very strong competitor. His youth and experience plus the stretched, tangential connection to Asia should have made him a better vote getter. Maybe next time.

Elbegdorj Tsakhia: This former prime minister from Mongolia was always a dark horse, a long shot, but his name kept coming up in different international quarters. No telling what would have happened if Ban had not locked up the race so early. The rumor mill is that Elbegdorj—who built strong relations with Washington and the West—could be drafted into a UN role. It is worth noting that he also traveled to North Korea and is welcome in Pyongyang—Would a Mongolian be a good North Korean mediator?

What’s Next?

Check back from time to time. The staff—small as it is—has greatly enjoyed your e-mails containing comments, tidbits, mud slinging, and all the elements that go into an international campaign. Over 75,000 of you visited this site. If there should be some new news, it will be posted.

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Friday, September 29, 2006

A HUGE WIN FOR BAN

South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon scored a big victory yesterday when he picked up 13 votes “encouraging” his candidacy and one vote each “discouraging” his candidacy and a “no opinion”. The two next closest vote-getters were Shashi Tharoor, an Indian U.N. civil servant (8-3-4), and Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga who has emerged late in this field and the only female candidate under active consideration (7-6-2). As this web site has noted under her picture and bio, President Freiberga is a non-starter as there is no way Russian President Putin will sign off on any person from a Baltic state. Putin is still smarting from the speed and vigor at which the Balts broke away from the Soviet orbit and then committed the ultimate “sin”—joining NATO. The Latvian president is known for her work in tossing the Russians out of her home country and her personal, dedicated commitment to democracy. She is an excellent candidate to lead the U.N., but the Russians by virtue of the veto pen will keep her out.

A breakout of the voting

	Encourage	Discourage	No Opinion
Ban	13	1	1
Tharoor	8	3	4
Vike-Freiberga	7	6	2
Surakiart	5	7	3
Zeid	3	6	6
Ghani	3	6	6
Dhanapala	3	7	5

This site reported in early September—read the Sep. 6th posting—that the stars were aligning for Ban and that the U.S. was moving towards his candidacy.

Indian nominee Tharoor as has been mentioned earlier is suffering from his greatest strength—that he is Indian and could import an “Indian Agenda” to the Secretary General’s office. Although there has been nothing to indicate this, enough whispers by regional neighbors make perception a reality. We can assume that China, despite warming relations between Delhi and Beijing, would not like to have an Indian as SG. The battle for regional hegemony takes place at the many levels, including the U.N. We leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.

What about the much ballyhooed Thai contestants: Earlier this week several new Thai names were being bandied about, but not seriously. The big loser here is Thai candidate Surakiart Sathirathai. Its been a difficult two weeks for him. First, his government gets couped. Then the military-run government gives him a big embrace (lets see, what signal would that send to the world if a military that just coupes a democratically-elected government endorses your candidacy?) and he tries to put distance between his military supporters and himself, then the Philippines backs out the ASEAN “agreement” (tenuous as it was) supporting him, and finally don’t place in the voting. Actually, Surakiart’s problems were legion in trying to win the SG race—first and foremost he carried the weight of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin missteps in dealing with Muslim unrest in the south of the country, constrictions in freedom of the press and other issues.

Is it a Bribe or Slinging Mud?

Barely had the vote been announced than “non paper” that beautiful term of art for circulating a paper filled with charges but attributed to no one—or no country—began circulating from different quarters…all different but all with the same charge—that South Korea is buying the SG votes of African countries through sweetheart trade deals. Ban has visited all the countries on the UNSC and seems to leave behind a big trade deal with or assistance program where ever he goes—with the exception of the Big Five— Also, in February South Korea increased by three fold its foreign assistance program to Africa to US $100 million—coincidence???

In fact, South Koreas has a distinguished history of buying its way to accomplish a foreign policy objective. NSG.org wishes to remind its readers that in 2003—just three short years ago, it was revealed that South Korea paid over $1.9 billion (again $1.9 billion) to North Korean to bring them to the negotiating table as part of the South’s “lets all be friends” Sunshine Policy.

South Korea's efforts to reconcile with communist North Korea suffered a major setback as a controversy flared that President Kim Dae-jung had bribed North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il in return for holding a summit that earned Kim Dae-jung a Nobel Peace Prize—it should raise eyebrows that as the Hyundai conglomerate was secretly transferring $200 million to North Korea to help this effort and gain permission for lucrative South-North tourist priviledges…while this was going on the South’s diplocorps was mounting a worldwide campaign and working the Nobel Committee hard for their president to receive the coveted Peace Prize…Is this déjà vu all over again?

So are South Korea’s actions a bribe to put their person in the SG slot---you decide. It will be interesting to see if this charge gains traction over the weekend.

Monday’s Vote a Coronation?

A vote on Monday could result in a victory lap for Ban. To date, all voting has been secret. On Monday the process will switch and the use of color coded cards will be used so it will be possible to identify the Big Five SC members and how they voted. If Ban has locked up the Big Five—its all over. As this is being written, NSG.org believes that at least Britain and China have voted for Ban with a possible U.S. vote. The U.S. vote might have gone to Freiberga as an act of solidarity with the understanding that the next vote is for Ban.

Out Takes

To those people who have contacted NSG.org with their campaign against Ambassador Deva-Aditya of Sri Lanka—PLEASE RELAX…Its over. A substantial Tamil voice has been directed this way in opposition to his candidacy. It might be of some comfort to know the rest of the world feels the same way—but for different reasons.

SG Annan really wanted see a woman be nominated according to sources close to his office. However, why he did not try to encourage—say New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark—might not ever be known.

Stay tuned

There is a saying that a day is a lifetime in politics…very true in the SG’s race.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2006

Jordan Makes a Play

Okay..we have a new candidate that has entered the race from Jordan throwing a new twist into the UNSG race. Zeid Ra’ad Zeid Al-Hussein, Jordan’s ambassador to the UN is the country’s nominee and he proves a very interesting candidate that could have the horsepower to mount a strong candidacy to South Korean frontrunner Ban Ki-Moon.

Jordan, a Muslim country, is banking on the broad reach of the 54 country Asian Regional Group at the UN which stretches from Cyprus to Japan. Jordanian officials maintain that the integrity of the Asian Rotation is maintained. Jordanian diplomats are launching a full court press starting today at the Arab League meeting to press Zeid’s case.

His candidacy is intriguing as he has held several key posts at a young age (42), and his work has gained him respect around the UN halls. He is considered an expert in the field of international justice, and played a role in the establishment of the International Criminal Court, the world's first permanent war crimes tribunal. This work earned him election as the first president to its governing body in 2002.

In 1997, Zeid demanded a UN report on the horrific 1995 massacre at Srebrenica. The subsequent account that was issued highlighted the UN’s failure to protect civilians.

Now….key to Zeid’s candidacy will signals from Indonesia (world’s largest Muslim country and key Asian regional player). What might make Zeid’s candidacy a masterstroke is that it places a moderate Muslim square in the middle of a Middle East that will most likely keep burning well into next year…From the war in Lebanon, to the Peace Process, Iraq and the nuclear soon to move to a full boil with Iran. Zeid is a cousin of the Jordanian King. Jordan has very good relations with the US (and Israel as well).

This is one worth watching closely. Any positive movement will place Zeid on the Whose Hot list.

He’s Back

Remember Ambassador Deva-Aditya? He was the Sri Lankan (scroll down) who jumped into the race sporting a letter of “support” or endorsement from two ex-prime ministers from Poland and France. This web site publicly asked the good Ambassador to forward the letter for examination as the e-mails poured in that it was all an exaggeration. We never did receive the letter but apparently the Republic of Fiji has written the Greek ambassador to the UN (current UNSC Chair) requesting that Deva-Aditya’s name be placed in consideration of the UNSG job. His CV and additional details can be found at www.nirjdeva.com/international

UNSG Politicking

With the UN General Assembly about to convene in just over a week, there will be much behind the scenes politicking. The Greek UN mission’s phone will be ringing off the hook. One UN diplomat told this site that “its been over a 1,000 years since Greece had this much influence and attention.”

Annan Wants a Woman

Current SG Annan stated that he wants to see a woman “considered” for the UNSG job in news reports. We would not agree more.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2006

From the Caribbean

Good news for South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon. An article from a Caribbean newspaper indicated Caribbean diplomats stating that the US had backed off plans to ditch the geographic rotation of UN head and push a non-Asian candidate.

If true, this good for Ban. Because signals coming out of Foggy Bottom (our State Department) indicate that the US is gravitating towards Ban as the next UNSG vote draws closer. A word of note and caution—is that no other sources in other countries can confirm that the US has/is drifting away from the trial balloons released earlier this year when the US was seen pushing an Eastern European, or Baltic candidate.

Wheels Up

Indian candidate Shashi Tharoor is on the road visiting Washington, Argentina, Slovakia, Denmark and the United Kingdom to plug his credentials. Details to follow from his trip as they come in.

Surakiart Slide Continues

An interesting piece in Chapter 15 (www.Chapter15.org), a site also following the UNSG race slams Thai candidate Surakiart Sathirathai whose campaign seems to be on something just short of life support. Chapter 15 highlights the Thai candidates inability to make progress on the problems with Myanmar (at one time the Thaksin government of which Surakiart is a member, tried to set up something called the Bangkok process to monitor and encourage reforms in Myanmar. This turned into a giant diplomatic failure). Myanmar has become an anchor around ASEAN’s neck. Moreover. Chapter 15 also calls the government for which Surakiart is a part “deeply corrupt.”

Like the US-based Fox News Channel say, “We report, you decide.”

Surakiart is also darkening the doorways of the UNSC members looking for support and has been in Peru and Argentina.

Everything Going On

Just a quick note on how many difficult issue the UNSC is handling these days. Between war in the Middle East, North Korean missile/nuclear issue, Iranian nuclear issue, as well as other important issues such as the US effort to bring Myanmar before the UNSC, Darfur, and first-ever elections in Democratic Republic of Congo have all served to eclipse at least so far the UNSC race. This is truly unfortunate.

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Wednesday, August 2, 2006

Silence Says it All

Some things in diplomacy are best left unspoken and such was the case when NewSecretaryGeneral.Org (NSGO) had an opportunity to discuss the UNSG job with a senior European (okay, hint: not British but the country is on the UNSC). Of course NSGO peppered the diplomat with questions about the nominees—Ban Kai Moon received a strong endorsement---but it was the response to a question about Thailand’s Surakiart that raised eyebrows. When asked to discuss the positives about the ASEAN candidate, there was a long, long pause. Further prompting produced a pensive stare into space—then a smile: Message received. If you don’t have anything nice to say about someone don’t say anything at all!

Tharoor Would Press for Female Education

Current UN Public Affairs Director Shashi Tharoor and one of the top candidates in the race to succeed UN Chief Kofi Annan, said education for girls in developing countries would be his main mission if he were to head the agency. Tharoor believe that the key to allievating poverty and many social ills is through elevating the welfare of women. This is a pretty populist platform on which to run.

Still Waiting, Ambassador

NSGO has previously reported that Sri Lankan Ambassador Niranjan Deva-Aditya came under an intense whisper campaign after boasting that he had received the endorsement of two ex-prime ministers from Poland and France. NSGO had received information that the endorsement was an exaggeration and subsequently asked for the release of the letter. In short, we’re still waiting and the lack of any clarification from the Niranjan camp can only lead to speculation on the authenticity of the letter. Further information can be found at http://www.srilankanforunsg.com/PressRelFinal.doc

Washington Rumor Mill

A senior staff member for the very powerful US Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently discussed the UNSG race and stated that he believed Ambassador Bolton will reveal the US candidate towards the end of August. Bolton was recently in Washington to testify at a hearing nomination. He has not been confirmed by the US Senate but was Recess Appointed by President Bush. Democrats are continuing to block his nomination.

On Burma, a Plea

Of all the regimes in the world few are as odious, noxious, and least deserving of a seat at the UN than Burma (called Myanmar by the military regime that runs the country). Aside from human rights abuses (including the use of rape as a tool of military subversion), the regime holds the distinction of jailing a Nobel Peace Prize winner—Aung San Suu Kyi for 10 of the last 16 years—there is a guerrilla underground movement by her supporters to try and get her nominated to be the next UNSG in an attempt to humiliate the regime (NSGO does not believe this junta CAN be humilitated judging from their actions). A note to all the dedicated Burmese activists—PLEASE stop choking our inbox with messages of support for Suu Kyi. Your actions are admirable and so noted but your efforts are wasted as this site is dedicated to an accurate portrayal of Who’s Hot and Who Will Lead the World.

On Vacation

Everyone needs a break and for two weeks it is highly unlikely that anything will be posted. As we jet off to visit key continents we will incorporate what we find in future postings. Please contact me at writer@newsecretarygeneral.org

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Tuesday, July 25, 2006

The first International straw poll has been taken-by secret ballot-and the results are:

	Encourage	Discourage	No Opinion
Ban	12	1	2
Tharoor	10	2	3
Surakiart	7	3	5
Dhanapala	5	6	4

South Korean candidate Ban Ki Moon garnered 12 "Encouragements", with Tharoor, and Surakiart with 10 and 7 votes respectively. The question is, what does it all mean?

First, this vote was taken and only considered candidates that have been put forward officially by countries. Thus, a candidate such as former Singaporean Prime Minister Goh was not considered.

Second, Surakiart (Thailand's candidate) received a boost at the ASEAN regional Foreign Minister's meeting on Monday where he received another vote of confidence that he was in fact ASEAN's candidate. However, according to European sources, alarm bells are ringing over his defamation lawsuit filed to reportedly silence political opponents. He has taken another hit when a human rights organization took him to task on the treatment of Muslims in Thailand.

The Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC), an NGO, has denounced Surakiart and his campaign callin it "immoral and dishonest." This blistering critique follows a UN report that the Thai government's immunity for security forces engaged in "counter-insurgency" efforts in southern Thailand violates the government's obligations under international human rights law.

This from the statement from AHRC:

"It is offensive to think that the Thai government is wasting its national budget promoting a man for the top UN job who has held a senior position throughout a time that it has consistently flouted international law and snubbed the best efforts of UN officials to improve human rights in its country," Basil Fernando, executive director of the AHRC, said.

"It is an affront to the international community that such a person would even be put forward for the position," Fernando said.

Now, the statement from the UN Human Rights Council's Rapporteur on Extrajudicial , Summary or Arbitrary Executions (Philip Aston) stated that some actions taken by the Thai government violate Thailand's obligations under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. In short, you can't cut back on legal safeguards surrounding the right to life during a crisis or war. Many world leaders need to dust off and read this chapter.

What's Next?

Needless to say it is nice to be out front but there is a rule of thumb that says the "higher up the flagpole you go, the more your butt is exposed." Being a front runner is nice, but it will invite very close media scrutiny and negative whisper campaigns. For Ban, his biggest job will be to continue reassuring the international community that he will be a stable hand at the helm, with good management expertise and an ability to deal with inflamed world tensions.

For his competitors, they will need to go out and rehone their individual cases as to "why me." The danger with Surakirt is that the door could now be opened for Singaporean PM Goh to enter the race. In fact, an e-mail from a senior ASEAN diplomat (from a very large and influential country) detailed that he believed Surakirt's nomination is dead as he can not expand his base of support beyond Asia and ASEAN in particular.

Ban is in an excellent position to break out of the pack enlarge his lead. If he can enlarge his margin at the next straw poll taken in late August the race will be his to lose.

A week can be a lifetime in politics, but with August fast approaching we are entering the final 12 weeks of the campaign who the next "World Leader."

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